How important are presidential debates in determining an election?
As the U.S. National Archives also noted, there weren’t perfect statistics to prove
that’s the only reason Kennedy jumped in the polls. Many years later, experts say
it’s difficult to point to debates as a deciding factor for voters.
And that’s also why debates may not be a huge factor in the overall result, said Dr. Juliet Carlisle, assistant professor of political science at the University of Utah. There are plenty of examples of how factors outside of a debate — things like news stories, the economy or legislation — that can lead to a candidate’s bumps or dips in polls after a debate concludes, which is what clouds whether a debate performance or outside factor led to change. Most voters’ post-debate perception changes are short-lived, she added.