Why homicides are increasing significantly across the country since late May?
A parallel pattern of firearm crime increases occurred during the 2016 Chicago homicide spike. A detailed paper on the Chicago spike by my University of Utah colleague Richard Fowles and me explains that in Chicago in 2016 gun-related crimes increased dramatically, but not other crimes. Specifically, in Chicago in 2016 homicides increased substantially, by 58% year-over-year from 2015 to 2016. There were also large (more than 20%) increases in robbery and aggravated assault–but not such large increases in other index crimes. Focusing specifically on gun crimes, there was a substantial increase in shootings in Chicago in 2016. Fatal shootings increased by 66% and non-fatal shootings increased by 44%.